On June 1, the Federal Reserve officially reduced its balance sheet, reducing its monthly total holdings by $47.5 billion
本文最后更新于 777 天前,其中的信息可能已经有所发展或是发生改变。

On June 1, the Federal Reserve started to shrink its table, reducing its holdings of US Treasury bonds and MBS (mortgage-backed securities) by a total of US $47.5 billion per month and will raise the upper limit of the shrinking table to the US $95billion per month in three months. The “quantitative tightening” affected the financial market, and the US stock market fell overnight, ending the “three consecutive rises”.

In the past month, the world has experienced a crazy “sell in May” – the NASDAQ index of the United States fell by nearly 30%, and emerging market stocks and bonds were sold off by international funds. Although the Shanghai composite index rebounded in May, it still fell by nearly 12% compared to last year’s end. The global stock market value has evaporated $20trillion from its peak of $120trillion at the end of last year to its low in May, and 2/3 of the market value growth since the outbreak of the epidemic has evaporated. However, global inflation is currently high. The international oil price is approaching the $120 per barrel mark again, the tightening road of the global central banks has just begun, and traders have tightened their safety belts. The domestic PMI has been below the boom and bust line for three consecutive months, the unemployment rate is rising step by step, and various layoffs and salary cuts continue to be reported; In terms of policies, it is clear that we should make full efforts to stabilize the overall economic market, advocate the banking industry to make profits, make every loan available, and cut the interest rate of housing loans everywhere;

In contrast, in the United States, the PMI has been above 50 for a long time, with high inflation and many job vacancies. To retain talent, some American enterprises have also announced plans for salary increases, such as Microsoft and Amazon; Under pressure, the Federal Reserve vigorously promoted the interest rate hike and table contraction to reduce liquidity and tighten the currency.

The impact on the domestic market will be greater when the RMB is devalued against the US dollar. There may be many US dollars flowing back and foreign capital withdrawing.

US government debt ratio
The ratio of US Treasury bond size to GDP

中文版:

美联储6月1日开启缩表,每月总计减持475亿美元美国国债和MBS(抵押贷款支持证券),并将在3个月后提高缩表上限至每月950亿美元。“量化紧缩”影响金融市场,隔夜美股收跌,结束了“三连涨”。

在过去的一个月,全球经历了疯狂的“卖在5月”——美国纳斯达克指数跌近30%,新兴市场股债遭遇国际资金抛售,上证综指尽管5月反弹,但仍较去年底跌近12%。全球股市市值自去年底的峰值120万亿美元到5月低点已蒸发20万亿美元,自疫情暴发以来市值增幅中的2/3蒸发殆尽。但目前全球通胀高企,国际油价再度逼近每桶120美元大关,全球央行的紧缩之路才刚刚开始,交易员纷纷系紧安全带。

国内PMI 已连续三个月在荣枯线之下,失业率步步走高,各种裁员降薪消息不断;政策方面,明确要全面发力,稳住经济大盘,倡导银行业让利,应贷尽贷,各地房贷纷纷降息等;

反观美国,PMI长期在50以上,通胀高企,大批岗位空缺,为了留住人才,一些美企还公布了涨薪的方案,比如微软亚马逊等;美联储在压力下,强势推进加息缩表,减少流动性,收紧货币;

对国内的影响,人民币兑美元,贬值压力会更大,可能会有一批美元回流,外资撤离。

US government debt ratio
The ratio of US Treasury bond size to GDP
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